By Brendan Brown (auth.)

ISBN-10: 1349061034

ISBN-13: 9781349061037

ISBN-10: 1349061050

ISBN-13: 9781349061051

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During slump, profits are typically a lower proportion of national income than during boom; aggregate real wages are less cyclical than profits. Although the average real wage would fall by less than aggregate profits, the individual labourer is faced with particularly uncertain income prospects in a slump. In that state of the world his endowment takes the form of a gamble of, say, a 90 per cent chance of earning an average real wage 5 per cent lower than in a state of boom, and a 10 per cent chance of earning zero (if he became part of the army of unemployed).

This state of the world forms a large part of the subject-matter of Chapter 3. Notes and References 1. J. Arrow, 'The role of securities in the optimal allocation of risk bearing', Review of Economics Studies, vol. 31 (April1964) pp. 91--6. 2. See J. Hirshleifer, 'Investment Decision Under Uncertainty: Choice Theoretic Approaches', Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 509-36. 3. Excluded here are gambles, entered into deliberately, whose outcome is unrelated to any natural event or state of the world.

The proportion which fairweather goods and hedge-assets represents in the investor's portfolio will vary over time, according to changing present values of the different state-variables and changing Hedges: Concept and Pricing 41 probability distribution of their values in future intervals. At times of crisis, when one or more bad general states are awarded high probability estimates, hedge assets will represent a higher proportion, in value terms, of the total portfolio, than at more peaceful times.

### A Theory of Hedge Investment by Brendan Brown (auth.)

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